Estimate repeated-attempt outcomes from the chance currently displayed in the player's forge UI
A player-input forge probability guide with three transparent repeated-attempt outputs and no stored game rate.
The calculator returns a transparent repeated-attempt scenario without supplying an official game rate.
Starting point
Start only when your current forge interface displays a category probability.
Steps
Read the category probability currently displayed by your own forge UI.
Enter that percentage and a positive whole-number attempt count in the calculator.
Compare the at-least-one, zero-result, and expected-count outputs with the model assumptions beside them.
Success state
You are finished when the calculator returns a transparent repeated-attempt scenario without supplying an official game rate.
What the checked sources show
Confirm that the result updates from the two player-entered inputs and that all three modeled outputs are visible.
If no probability is visible in the current game UI, do not calculate from a guessed value.
Return to the forge guide when you need the observed input, forge, Backpack, and equip sequence.
Source-qualified evidence
Start only when your current forge interface displays a category probability.
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Copy the displayed probability into the calculator instead of guessing a game rate.
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Enter a positive whole-number attempt count for the scenario you want to model.
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Compare the at-least-one, zero-result, and expected-count outputs with the assumptions shown beside them.
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Confirm that the result updates from the two player-entered inputs and that all three modeled outputs are visible.
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The calculator returns a transparent repeated-attempt scenario without supplying an official game rate.
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If no probability is visible in the current game UI, do not calculate from a guessed value.
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The model assumes unchanged independent attempts and does not claim a verified pity rule, hidden weighting, or guarantee.
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Return to the forge guide when you need the observed input, forge, Backpack, and equip sequence.
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The forge UI in the selected session exposes a displayed equipment-category probability; the shown head chance was 85% in that attempt.
observed gameplay
Player-input scenario
Displayed Forge Chance Calculator
Copy the category percentage shown by your current forge UI. This site does not supply or store a game drop rate.
Enter both current values to calculate.
- Enter the probability currently displayed in your forge UI.
- Enter a planned attempt count.
Model assumptions and formulas
This is a standard probability scenario. It assumes each modeled attempt is independent and that your entered probability stays unchanged. It does not model pity, hidden weighting, changing recipes, or a guarantee because no verified rule for those systems is available.
- At least one:
- 1 − (1 − p)n
- Zero successes:
- (1 − p)n
- Expected successes:
- n × p
Math: deterministic · Game applicability: scenario only · Gameplay evidence checked 2026-09-14